Diary: January 21, 2025
On the Reagan Era, Democrats' future, the Admiral of the Coast Guard, and Raising Cane's
I.
Where does the Democratic Party go from here? Patrick Healy wrote an opinion piece for The NY Times suggesting it may be going through a period in the wilderness akin to 1980 - 1992. I’ve been trying to put together my thoughts on this for a longer essay, but I think it’s time we rethink the Reagan Era. It’s often spoke about similarly to the FDR era that preceded it. Policies so popular even the opposing party has to concede ground on them, causing a complete political realignment. Republican’s tack left, or Democrats tack right. Think about Eisenhower expanding New Deal programs, or Clinton completing NAFTA.
But I think this is a misreading. For FDR, the policies were popular, yes, but for Reagan they were not. So, why did Democrats continue Reagan’s unpopular policies? Simple. They misinterpreted his and Bush’s victories in 1980, 1984 and 1988. Similar to Biden/Harris this past cycle, Carter presided over an economically tumultuous time, while being seen, rightly or wrongly, as overwhelmed and ineffectual. This, combined with Reagan being a generational political talent, allowed an easy victory in 1980. In their misinterpretation, Democrats flew into disarray, which, despite the ineffectiveness and corruption of the Reagan then Bush administrations, allowed further Republican victories. Reagan and Bush continuing Nixon’s Southern Strategy was also a factor.
But again, the perception of a conservative turn in the electorate was false, as Democrats held the Senate in eight of those twelve years, and the House all of those twelve years.
In 1992, Democrats ran Clinton. Much like Reagan, he benefited not from popular policies, but from political acumen, and running against Bush and Dole, two Republicans with the personality of a cardboard box. And there was Perot, by far the strongest third party candidate of my lifetime. Possibly the strongest of the twentieth century? I’d have to double check that. Anyways, Clinton never won a majority of the popular vote, and would preside over the Democrats losing the House for the first time since the 1950’s.
We see a pattern starting to emerge. One party wins, but voter dissatisfaction immediately brings about a change that’s first reflected in the midterms, and an ever-closer general election. With an organized Democratic Party, and lacking Reagan’s charisma, Bush loses reelection. If the Republicans run someone better than Dole, and/or convince Perot to sit out, Clinton likely loses reelection. It’s a back and forth every cycle, with diminishing turnout, as voters become increasingly disaffected.
This disaffection bears out in the insanely close 2000 and 2004 elections. The biggest victory since 1988 comes in 2008, with Barack Obama. This comes about because of an insanely unpopular Republican president, yes, but also because Obama campaigned as a break from post-Reagan politics.
But Obama didn’t govern as a post-Reagan politician. He governed as a Clintonian Democrat, barely to the left of Republicans on domestic issues, virtually identical on foreign policy. So, what happened? The same swing we’ve been seeing through this Reagan Era of politics, and the Democrats got destroyed in the 2010 midterms. In 2012, Republicans ran the worst possible candidate for the moment, the corporate institutionalist Mitt Romney, and Obama squeaked out a reelection victory that would prove meaningless, as obstructionist Republicans would control Congress all four years of his second term.
In 2016, Democrats made the boneheaded decision to again ignore or misinterpret the voice of the voters, running Hilary Clinton, hoping to, for whatever reason, extend the Reagan Era. And it would have worked, if the Republicans didn’t finally give voters their first, at least superficially, post-Reagan candidate — Donald Trump.
Of course, Trump was not a popular president, and his first term was like any other Reagan Era president’s term, though with more than the usual chaos and corruption. So, the pattern continued. People saw this and proceeded to boot first the Republicans out of Congress in 2018, then Trump out of the White House in 2020.
Biden, being a politician from the Reagan Era, of course governed like a politician from the Reagan Era (I know he was technically the most pro-worker, progressive president of his time, but that’s a super low bar). You know what happened… Voters made him pay for this error. Biden/Harris very likely would have lost to any Republican candidate.
So, will the pattern continue? Trump governs as every president has governed for the past 45 years, albeit with his unique corrupt spin on the office, Democrats gain ground in the midterms, then take back the White House in 2028? Or maybe he will be the ever-elusive post-Reagan Era politician. What then? Well, it depends on the outcome of his policies. If I had to put money on it, either way he will overreach with extremely unpopular social legislation, and/or his tariffs will partly cause an economic downturn, and Democrats will regain control of government.
But until they run a true post-Reagan Era politician, Democrats will never hold a sustained majority.
II.
Trump fired the Admiral of the Coast Guards today. He says it’s due to her failure to stop migrants and drug running at the border, and her focus on diversity; or, her focus on diversity caused her supposed errors at the border. Regardless of gender, the Republicans need punching bags for their pet issues, though firing the only woman to lead a branch of the armed forces within 24 hours of taking office sends an additional, and very intentional, message.
III.
The same day that Trump withdrew us from the Paris Climate Agreement, high winds compounded the LA Fires, and helped create a few, thankfully smaller, fires in San Diego.
IV.
With Trump in the audience, a Bishop pleaded with Trump to take “mercy” on undocumented immigrates and LBTQ+ peoples. Predictably, MAGA and Republicans are up in arms about this activist judge. Gross mysoginistic comments on the internet abound. Who’d think that so-called Christians would rail again Jesus’ words about loving your neighbor? Well, if this country was truly Christian, it would look much different.
V.
I’m writing this late, so not a lot of time to reflect on personal thoughts and day-to-day. I walked five miles, then spent the majority of the morning and afternoon looking for work. Around 4pm my son and I practiced his pitching and hitting; he has tryouts this weekend. At 5pm we headed to back-to-back doctor appointments for the kids, then grabbed Raising Canes on the way home, a treat for having to endure a new round of shots.